upslope

October 12, 2026 New England rain event — forecast vs. what fell

event hit rate 81% MAE 0.16″ 32 mountains scored

On October 12, 2026, 29 of 32 scored New England ski resorts recorded measurable rain, peaking at 1.34″ near Wachusett. upslope’s day-before forecasts verified at a 81% event hit rate with a mean absolute error of 0.16″ across 32 mountains. Ground truth: median of CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges near each resort (min 2 reporting).

Mountain by mountain

Resort Forecast Measured Error Call
WachusettMA0.84″1.34″-0.5″✓
Berkshire EastMA0.79″0.95″-0.16″✓
CrotchedNH0.58″0.65″-0.07″✓
Mount SnowVT0.77″0.54″+0.23″✓
PicoVT0.31″0.49″-0.18″✓
Pats PeakNH0.6″0.39″+0.21″✓
KillingtonVT0.34″0.38″-0.04″✓
StrattonVT0.72″0.36″+0.36″✓
BromleyVT0.59″0.35″+0.24″✓
Magic MountainVT0.58″0.35″+0.23″✓
LoonNH0.2″0.32″-0.12″✓
Waterville ValleyNH0.13″0.32″-0.19″✓
OkemoVT0.38″0.31″+0.07″✓
GunstockNH0.47″0.3″+0.17″✓
Sunday RiverME0.05″0.3″-0.25″✗
Mount SunapeeNH0.61″0.29″+0.32″✓
CannonNH0.16″0.28″-0.12″✓
RaggedNH0.46″0.28″+0.18″✓
SugarbushVT0.17″0.28″-0.11″✓
Mad River GlenVT0.15″0.27″-0.12″✓
Bolton ValleyVT0.08″0.24″-0.16″✗
BurkeVT0.04″0.23″-0.19″✗
CranmoreNH0.1″0.23″-0.13″✓
AttitashNH0.12″0.22″-0.1″✓
Black MountainNH0.1″0.2″-0.1″✓
StoweVT0.06″0.19″-0.13″✗
WildcatNH0.04″0.19″-0.15″✗
Bretton WoodsNH0.16″0.17″-0.01″✓
Smugglers' NotchVT0.05″0.16″-0.11″✗
Jay PeakVT0.02″0.06″-0.04″✓
SaddlebackME—0.06″-0.06″✓
SugarloafME—0.06″-0.06″✓

Forecast = upslope's NWS-based rain forecast for the same 7am-to-7am window the gauges measure, from the last run before that window opened. ✓ = correctly called rain above/below 0.1″. Positive error = over-forecast.