upslope

Key Messages:

1) Scattered showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into tonight with seasonable temps.

2) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through the mid week with potentially some strong to severe thunderstorms due to a stalled frontal boundary nearby.

Discussion:

KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 1:40 PM EDT...High pressure has shifted off to the south and east with a warm front located just south and west of our region. Current GOES 16 WV imagery shows an upper trough dropping down from Canada and another upper shortwave back over the Great Lakes. The upper forcing for ascent is leading to some scattered showers for northern areas based on latest radar imagery, with additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms expected this afternoon further south where low- level positive theta e advection will also lead to some enhanced lift across the Mid Hudson Valley. While deep- layer shear is fairly strong, lack of instability (<500 J/kg of SBCAPE per the latest SPC mesoanalysis), mid-level capping, and meager mid- level lapse rates will all work to limit the threat of severe weather. A few non-severe thunderstorms will still be possible, though, mainly for our southern few counties. We collaborated with WPC to have the marginal risk ERO removed entirely from our region today given fast storm motions and lack of instability should prevent any sort of flooding threat.