upslopeOctober 3, 2026 New England rain event — forecast vs. what fell
event hit rate 62%
MAE 0.09″
32 mountains scored
On October 3, 2026, 12 of 32 scored New England ski resorts recorded measurable rain, peaking at 0.48″ near Jay Peak. upslope’s day-before forecasts verified at a 62% event hit rate with a mean absolute error of 0.09″ across 32 mountains. Ground truth: median of CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges near each resort (min 2 reporting).
Mountain by mountain
| Resort | Forecast | Measured | Error | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay PeakVT | — | 0.48″ | -0.48″ | ✗ |
| Smugglers' NotchVT | — | 0.44″ | -0.44″ | ✗ |
| StoweVT | — | 0.37″ | -0.37″ | ✗ |
| BurkeVT | — | 0.36″ | -0.36″ | ✗ |
| Bolton ValleyVT | — | 0.24″ | -0.24″ | ✗ |
| Mad River GlenVT | — | 0.19″ | -0.19″ | ✗ |
| SugarbushVT | — | 0.18″ | -0.18″ | ✗ |
| CannonNH | — | 0.12″ | -0.12″ | ✗ |
| Bretton WoodsNH | — | 0.1″ | -0.1″ | ✗ |
| KillingtonVT | — | 0.1″ | -0.1″ | ✗ |
| PicoVT | — | 0.1″ | -0.1″ | ✗ |
| WildcatNH | — | 0.1″ | -0.1″ | ✗ |
| StrattonVT | — | 0.06″ | -0.06″ | ✓ |
| BromleyVT | — | 0.04″ | -0.04″ | ✓ |
| Mount SnowVT | — | 0.04″ | -0.04″ | ✓ |
| OkemoVT | — | 0.03″ | -0.03″ | ✓ |
| Magic MountainVT | — | 0.02″ | -0.02″ | ✓ |
| GunstockNH | — | 0.01″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| LoonNH | — | 0.01″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| SaddlebackME | — | 0.01″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| SugarloafME | — | 0.01″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| Sunday RiverME | — | 0.01″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| AttitashNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Berkshire EastMA | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Black MountainNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| CranmoreNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| CrotchedNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Mount SunapeeNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Pats PeakNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| RaggedNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| WachusettMA | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Waterville ValleyNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
Forecast = upslope's last published NWS-based rain number the day before. ✓ = correctly called rain above/below 0.1″. Positive error = over-forecast.