upslopeOctober 16, 2026 New England rain event — forecast vs. what fell
event hit rate 78%
MAE 0.06″
32 mountains scored
On October 16, 2026, 22 of 32 scored New England ski resorts recorded measurable rain, peaking at 0.34″ near Burke. upslope’s day-before forecasts verified at a 78% event hit rate with a mean absolute error of 0.06″ across 32 mountains. Ground truth: median of CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges near each resort (min 2 reporting).
Mountain by mountain
| Resort | Forecast | Measured | Error | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BurkeVT | 0.07″ | 0.34″ | -0.27″ | ✗ |
| Jay PeakVT | 0.09″ | 0.29″ | -0.2″ | ✗ |
| Mount SnowVT | 0.28″ | 0.29″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| Berkshire EastMA | 0.11″ | 0.27″ | -0.16″ | ✓ |
| Smugglers' NotchVT | 0.17″ | 0.24″ | -0.07″ | ✓ |
| CannonNH | 0.08″ | 0.23″ | -0.15″ | ✗ |
| StoweVT | 0.18″ | 0.23″ | -0.05″ | ✓ |
| StrattonVT | 0.21″ | 0.21″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Bolton ValleyVT | 0.19″ | 0.2″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| BromleyVT | 0.22″ | 0.2″ | +0.02″ | ✓ |
| Magic MountainVT | 0.21″ | 0.18″ | +0.03″ | ✓ |
| OkemoVT | 0.19″ | 0.18″ | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| Mount SunapeeNH | 0.16″ | 0.15″ | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| RaggedNH | 0.13″ | 0.15″ | -0.02″ | ✓ |
| LoonNH | 0.07″ | 0.12″ | -0.05″ | ✗ |
| Mad River GlenVT | 0.17″ | 0.12″ | +0.05″ | ✓ |
| Bretton WoodsNH | 0.07″ | 0.11″ | -0.04″ | ✗ |
| SugarbushVT | 0.17″ | 0.11″ | +0.06″ | ✓ |
| Black MountainNH | 0.03″ | 0.1″ | -0.07″ | ✗ |
| KillingtonVT | 0.23″ | 0.1″ | +0.13″ | ✓ |
| PicoVT | 0.22″ | 0.1″ | +0.12″ | ✓ |
| WildcatNH | 0.07″ | 0.1″ | -0.03″ | ✗ |
| AttitashNH | 0.04″ | 0.09″ | -0.05″ | ✓ |
| CranmoreNH | 0.03″ | 0.09″ | -0.06″ | ✓ |
| Waterville ValleyNH | 0.07″ | 0.08″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| CrotchedNH | 0.06″ | 0.07″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| Pats PeakNH | 0.08″ | 0.07″ | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| GunstockNH | 0.06″ | 0.06″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Sunday RiverME | 0.03″ | 0.05″ | -0.02″ | ✓ |
| WachusettMA | 0.04″ | 0.04″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| SaddlebackME | 0.01″ | 0.03″ | -0.02″ | ✓ |
| SugarloafME | — | 0.03″ | -0.03″ | ✓ |
Forecast = upslope's NWS-based rain forecast for the same 7am-to-7am window the gauges measure, from the last run before that window opened. ✓ = correctly called rain above/below 0.1″. Positive error = over-forecast.