upslopeOctober 14, 2026 New England rain event — forecast vs. what fell
event hit rate 100%
MAE 0.28″
32 mountains scored
On October 14, 2026, 32 of 32 scored New England ski resorts recorded measurable rain, peaking at 2.1″ near Wildcat. upslope’s day-before forecasts verified at a 100% event hit rate with a mean absolute error of 0.28″ across 32 mountains. Ground truth: median of CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges near each resort (min 2 reporting).
Mountain by mountain
| Resort | Forecast | Measured | Error | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WildcatNH | 1.55″ | 2.1″ | -0.55″ | ✓ |
| Bretton WoodsNH | 1.26″ | 2.05″ | -0.79″ | ✓ |
| Black MountainNH | 1.43″ | 1.83″ | -0.4″ | ✓ |
| Sunday RiverME | 1.53″ | 1.83″ | -0.3″ | ✓ |
| Smugglers' NotchVT | 1.74″ | 1.75″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| StoweVT | 1.96″ | 1.63″ | +0.33″ | ✓ |
| SaddlebackME | 1.69″ | 1.61″ | +0.08″ | ✓ |
| SugarloafME | 1.7″ | 1.61″ | +0.09″ | ✓ |
| SugarbushVT | 1.3″ | 1.55″ | -0.25″ | ✓ |
| Bolton ValleyVT | 1.94″ | 1.5″ | +0.44″ | ✓ |
| AttitashNH | 1.51″ | 1.48″ | +0.03″ | ✓ |
| Mad River GlenVT | 1.42″ | 1.41″ | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| CranmoreNH | 1.4″ | 1.4″ | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Jay PeakVT | 1.72″ | 1.34″ | +0.38″ | ✓ |
| BromleyVT | 0.74″ | 1.26″ | -0.52″ | ✓ |
| StrattonVT | 0.71″ | 1.23″ | -0.52″ | ✓ |
| BurkeVT | 1.44″ | 1.21″ | +0.23″ | ✓ |
| Magic MountainVT | 0.64″ | 1.16″ | -0.52″ | ✓ |
| OkemoVT | 0.69″ | 1.08″ | -0.39″ | ✓ |
| CannonNH | 1.14″ | 0.98″ | +0.16″ | ✓ |
| Waterville ValleyNH | 1.32″ | 0.96″ | +0.36″ | ✓ |
| LoonNH | 1.24″ | 0.91″ | +0.33″ | ✓ |
| KillingtonVT | 1.21″ | 0.88″ | +0.33″ | ✓ |
| PicoVT | 1.18″ | 0.83″ | +0.35″ | ✓ |
| Pats PeakNH | 0.49″ | 0.81″ | -0.32″ | ✓ |
| Mount SunapeeNH | 0.67″ | 0.77″ | -0.1″ | ✓ |
| RaggedNH | 0.84″ | 0.73″ | +0.11″ | ✓ |
| GunstockNH | 0.92″ | 0.63″ | +0.29″ | ✓ |
| CrotchedNH | 0.23″ | 0.6″ | -0.37″ | ✓ |
| Mount SnowVT | 0.43″ | 0.33″ | +0.1″ | ✓ |
| Berkshire EastMA | 0.32″ | 0.17″ | +0.15″ | ✓ |
| WachusettMA | 0.17″ | 0.11″ | +0.06″ | ✓ |
Forecast = upslope's NWS-based rain forecast for the same 7am-to-7am window the gauges measure, from the last run before that window opened. ✓ = correctly called rain above/below 0.1″. Positive error = over-forecast.