upslopeAugust 31, 2026 New England rain event — forecast vs. what fell
event hit rate 69%
MAE 0.07″
32 mountains scored
On August 31, 2026, 10 of 32 scored New England ski resorts recorded measurable rain, peaking at 0.41″ near Jay Peak. upslope’s day-before forecasts verified at a 69% event hit rate with a mean absolute error of 0.07″ across 32 mountains. Ground truth: median of CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges near each resort (min 2 reporting).
Mountain by mountain
| Resort | Forecast | Measured | Error | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay PeakVT | 0.02″ | 0.41″ | -0.39″ | ✗ |
| BurkeVT | 0.03″ | 0.23″ | -0.2″ | ✗ |
| WildcatNH | 0.01″ | 0.22″ | -0.21″ | ✗ |
| SaddlebackME | 0.01″ | 0.21″ | -0.2″ | ✗ |
| SugarloafME | 0.01″ | 0.21″ | -0.2″ | ✗ |
| Bretton WoodsNH | 0.06″ | 0.15″ | -0.09″ | ✗ |
| Smugglers' NotchVT | 0.01″ | 0.14″ | -0.13″ | ✗ |
| Sunday RiverME | 0.01″ | 0.14″ | -0.13″ | ✗ |
| CannonNH | 0.03″ | 0.13″ | -0.1″ | ✗ |
| StoweVT | 0.02″ | 0.13″ | -0.11″ | ✗ |
| LoonNH | 0.01″ | 0.07″ | -0.06″ | ✓ |
| Bolton ValleyVT | 0.02″ | 0.06″ | -0.04″ | ✓ |
| WachusettMA | — | 0.05″ | -0.05″ | ✓ |
| Mad River GlenVT | 0.01″ | 0.04″ | -0.03″ | ✓ |
| SugarbushVT | 0.01″ | 0.04″ | -0.03″ | ✓ |
| PicoVT | 0.01″ | 0.03″ | -0.02″ | ✓ |
| GunstockNH | — | 0.02″ | -0.02″ | ✓ |
| KillingtonVT | 0.01″ | 0.02″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| Black MountainNH | 0.02″ | 0.01″ | +0.01″ | ✓ |
| BromleyVT | — | 0.01″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| StrattonVT | — | 0.01″ | -0.01″ | ✓ |
| AttitashNH | 0.04″ | — | +0.04″ | ✓ |
| Berkshire EastMA | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| CranmoreNH | 0.04″ | — | +0.04″ | ✓ |
| CrotchedNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Magic MountainVT | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Mount SnowVT | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Mount SunapeeNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| OkemoVT | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Pats PeakNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| RaggedNH | — | — | 0.0″ | ✓ |
| Waterville ValleyNH | 0.01″ | — | +0.01″ | ✓ |
Forecast = upslope's last published NWS-based rain number the day before. ✓ = correctly called rain above/below 0.1″. Positive error = over-forecast.